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KMID : 1161920190160030090
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Journal of Medicine and Life Science
2019 Volume.16 No. 3 p.90 ~ p.95
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Time series analysis for incidence of scarlet fever in children in Jeju Province, Korea, 2002~2016
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Shin In-Hye
Bae Jong-Myon
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Abstract
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Purpose: The Korea Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention interpreted that recent outbreaks of scarlet fever in Korea since 2011 was resulted from the expansion of scarlet fever notification criteria. To suggest a relevant hypothesis regarding this emerging outbreak, a time series analysis (TSA) of scarlet fever incidence between 2002 and 2016 was conducted.
Methods: The raw data was the nationwide insurance claims database administered by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The inclusion criteria were children aged ≤14 years residing in Jeju Province, Korea who received any form of healthcare for scarlet fever from 2002 to 2016.
Results: There were seasonal variations with showing peak season as winter and spring, and three intervals were identified between 2002 and 2016.
Conclusions: The results from TSA suggested that the recent outbreak of scarlet fever among children in Jeju Province might be a phenomenon from unknown birth-related environmental factors changed after 2010.
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KEYWORD
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Streptococcus pyogenes, Exotoxins, Scarlet fever, Interrupted time series analysis
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